Designing for the Unknown
Feb 24 2026Most software systems aspire to robustness — surviving stress unchanged — but that's just a holding pattern in a world that won't stop moving. Drawing on Taleb's concept of antifragility and Barry O'Reilly's Residuality Theory, this piece argues that we can deliberately engineer systems that improve under stress by combining two ideas from complexity science: Kauffman's Random Boolean Networks (which show that real system topologies are far more manageable than their theoretical state spaces suggest) and Monte Carlo-style thought experiments (tracing hypothetical scenarios through your architecture to find structural brittleness before the world finds it for you). The multiplier effect is key — fixing a structural weakness uncovered by one imagined scenario tends to cover dozens you never thought of. AI coding assistants make this exploration dramatically faster, letting you prototype multiple architectural alternatives in hours instead of weeks, but they don't replace the judgment calls about which scenarios matter and what the results mean. The takeaway: thinking is still the cheapest, highest-leverage activity in software design, and now we have even less excuse not to do more of it.